A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend of GLP-1 drug prescriptions among individuals without diabetes, even as new prescriptions for those with diabetes are on the decline.
The authors of the study express concern that this shift could lead to potential shortages of these medications. GLP-1 drugs are designed to mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar levels and reduces appetite, initially being approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA granted approval for the GLP-1 treatment Wegovy for weight loss.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, two major manufacturers of GLP-1 drugs, are currently facing challenges in keeping up with the rising demand for this medication class, which includes Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million Americans with at least one doctor visit from 2011 to 2023. They found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. Conversely, the proportion of new GLP-1 users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, commented, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are seeing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, which is a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the need to ensure that patients with diabetes still have access to these treatments.”
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, although it may not fully represent the national population.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing side effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight. The surge in sales of these medications has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the high demand has led to difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies have committed billions to increase production capacities for these drugs.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030. They also anticipate that about 31.5 million individuals in the U.S., roughly 9% of the population, will adopt these medications by 2035.