A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a decline in new prescriptions for GLP-1 drugs among individuals with diabetes, while prescriptions for those without diabetes are on the rise. This trend raises concerns about potential shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and suppresses appetite, were originally approved for type 2 diabetes treatment. However, in 2021, the FDA authorized the use of Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss. Since then, pharmaceutical companies Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have struggled to keep pace with the soaring demand for these drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined medical records of 45 million Americans who visited healthcare providers between 2011 and 2023. Their analysis showed that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. Conversely, the share of new users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, emphasized that the data reflects a significant shift in healthcare provider attitudes towards these medications for obesity treatment. However, this shift also raises concerns about ensuring ongoing access to treatments for diabetes patients.
The study leveraged data from healthcare software company TriNetX, although it may not be fully representative of the national population. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, resulting in reported weight losses of up to 26%.
The soaring sales of these medications have made Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally, yet the growing demand has made it difficult for some patients to obtain their prescriptions. In response to the demand, both companies have invested heavily in increasing their production capacities.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption rate of about 31.5 million people in the U.S. by 2035, representing approximately 9% of the population.