A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals an increasing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 medications to individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This shift raises concerns about potential shortages of these important treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and suppresses appetite, were initially approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. However, the approval of Wegovy for weight loss by the FDA in 2021 has significantly changed their usage.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in producing enough GLP-1 medications—including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic—to meet growing demand. Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined medical records of 45 million Americans between 2011 and 2023, discovering a decline in new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Concurrently, the percentage of new GLP-1 users without type 2 diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, indicated that the data reflects a growing recognition among healthcare providers of the benefits of these medications for obesity management. However, she expressed concerns regarding medication shortages and the necessity for continued access for diabetic patients.
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent national trends.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have surged in popularity due to their ability to help individuals lose up to 26% of their body weight, contributing to significant sales for Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, making them among the most valuable pharmaceutical firms globally. However, high demand has led to difficulties for some patients in getting their prescriptions filled. Both companies are investing billions to enhance production capabilities.
Analysts from Morgan Stanley predict that the global market for these medications could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption rate of about 31.5 million people in the U.S.—approximately 9% of the population—by 2035.