A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine indicates a rising trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs among individuals without diabetes, coinciding with a decline in new prescriptions for those with diabetes.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed medical records from 45 million American patients who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. Their findings reveal that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Meanwhile, the proportion of new users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, emphasized that healthcare providers are increasingly recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, indicating a significant public health shift. However, this trend also raises concerns about potential shortages of these medications and the need to ensure access for diabetes patients.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic hormones that regulate blood sugar and suppress appetite, were initially approved for type 2 diabetes treatment. The FDA expanded their use in 2021 to include weight loss treatments like Wegovy. Companies such as Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are finding it challenging to meet the soaring demand for these medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Sales of GLP-1 drugs have surged, elevating Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, this high demand has led to difficulties for patients in obtaining their prescriptions, prompting both companies to invest billions in increasing production.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for these drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption rate of approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S., representing about 9% of the population, by 2035.