A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend of increased prescriptions for GLP-1 medications among individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. The researchers caution that this shift could lead to potential shortages of these important treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which were initially approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, function by mimicking a hormone that manages blood sugar levels and curbs appetite. The approval of Wegovy for weight loss by the FDA in 2021 has further spurred interest in these medications.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in meeting the ever-increasing demand for GLP-1 drugs, including products like Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
The study, conducted by researchers at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions, analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. It found a decrease in the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% by 2023. Meanwhile, the percentage of those without type 2 diabetes who started using GLP-1 medications rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, highlighted the implications of these findings, stating, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are seeing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, which is a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the need to ensure that patients with diabetes still have access to these treatments.”
The study data was obtained from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent the national population.
GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight. This skyrocketing demand has significantly boosted the market value of Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, positioning them as leading pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the high demand has made it difficult for some patients to obtain their prescriptions. Both companies have invested billions to increase production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million people in the U.S., or about 9% of the population, using these medications by 2035.