A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine indicates that the proportion of individuals without diabetes receiving prescriptions for GLP-1 drugs is on the rise, while the number of prescriptions for those with diabetes is declining. Researchers warn that this shift could lead to possible shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and reduce appetite, were originally approved for type 2 diabetes treatment. However, in 2021, the FDA also approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss.
Currently, pharmaceutical companies Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are struggling to keep up with the soaring demand for GLP-1 medications, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
The study conducted by Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed medical records from 45 million Americans who visited doctors between 2011 and 2023. It found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023, while the share of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, emphasized the significance of these findings, stating, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, which is a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the need to ensure that patients with diabetes still have access to these treatments.”
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, though it may not fully represent national trends.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with some users experiencing weight loss of up to 26% of their body weight.
The surge in sales of GLP-1 drugs has significantly increased the market value of Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, making them two of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, high demand has led to challenges in filling prescriptions for some patients. Both Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are investing heavily to scale up production.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption rate of around 31.5 million people in the U.S., approximately 9% of the population, by 2035.