The proportion of individuals without diabetes receiving prescriptions for GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for diabetic patients are declining, according to a study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine. The researchers express concern that this trend may lead to shortages of these critical treatments.
GLP-1 drugs function by imitating a hormone that manages blood sugar levels and curbs appetite. Initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes, the FDA expanded the approval of Wegovy for weight loss in 2021. Since then, pharmaceutical companies Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in meeting the growing demand for GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
A review of medical records from 45 million Americans by researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions revealed that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the share of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%. Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, indicated that this shift suggests healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, which raises essential concerns about ensuring access for diabetic patients.
The study relied on data from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not be fully representative of the national population. GLP-1 medications have gained popularity for their weight-loss effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The remarkable sales growth has positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk among the most valuable pharmaceutical companies. However, the surging demand has resulted in difficulties for some patients in obtaining prescriptions. Both companies are investing billions of dollars to increase production capacity.
Market analysts from Morgan Stanley project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption rate of around 31.5 million people in the U.S.—approximately 9% of the population—by 2035.