A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs to individuals without diabetes, while prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. The study raises concerns over potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 medications, initially developed for type 2 diabetes management, mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar levels and curbs appetite. In 2021, the FDA approved Wegovy—a GLP-1 treatment—for weight loss, expanding the use of these medications.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are currently facing challenges in meeting the increased demand for GLP-1 treatments such as Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who sought medical care from 2011 to 2023. They found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. Conversely, the share of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Co-first author Yee Hui Yeo noted, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, indicating a significant public health shift. However, it also underscores concerns about medication shortages and the continued access for diabetic patients.”
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, but it may not represent a national population.
GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their weight-loss benefits, helping some users shed as much as 26% of their body weight. The soaring sales of these medications have positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk among the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies. However, the strong demand has created difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies have invested heavily to boost production capabilities.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will soar to $105 billion by 2030 and expect that their acceptance will reach approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S. by 2035, accounting for around 9% of the population.