A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine indicates a rising trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs among individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are decreasing. This shift raises concerns over potential shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar levels and suppresses appetite. Initially approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, the FDA authorized Wegovy, a type of GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss in 2021. Since then, pharmaceutical companies Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have struggled to keep up with the soaring demand for these medications, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited healthcare providers between 2011 and 2023. Their findings revealed that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. In contrast, the share of new GLP-1 users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, noted that this data reflects a significant public health shift as more healthcare providers recognize the benefits of these medications for treating obesity. However, it also raises alarms about the availability of these treatments for diabetes patients.
The study utilized data from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not provide a fully representative national sample. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, leading to weight loss of up to 26% for users.
As sales of these medications soar, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have become highly valuable pharmaceutical companies, yet the high demand has complicated prescription fulfillment for some patients. Both companies are investing billions to increase production of these drugs.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs may reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million people in the U.S.—approximately 9% of the population—expected to adopt these medications by 2035.