A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a rising trend in the prescription of GLP-1 medications to individuals without diabetes, coinciding with a decrease in new prescriptions for those diagnosed with diabetes. Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined medical records from 45 million Americans who visited doctors between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicated that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. Conversely, the proportion of new GLP-1 users without type 2 diabetes surged from 10% to 25%.
GLP-1 drugs, originally approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, function by imitating a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar levels and curbs appetite. Their use for weight loss was sanctioned by the FDA in 2021 when Wegovy received approval. Since this development, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in meeting the increasing demand for these medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
The study’s authors express concerns that the growing use of GLP-1 drugs for obesity treatment may lead to shortages for diabetes patients. Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, emphasized the need to ensure availability for diabetes sufferers amid this significant public health shift.
The popularity of GLP-1 drugs has soared due to their ability to aid substantial weight loss, with some users shedding up to 26% of their body weight. This surge in demand has boosted the market value of companies like Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, but the high demand has also led to prescription fulfillment issues for some patients. Both companies are now investing billions to enhance their production capacities.
Morgan Stanley predicts that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million people in the U.S. using these medications by 2035, equating to about 9% of the population.