A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine indicates that the number of people without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications is increasing, while the number of prescriptions for diabetics is declining. Researchers express concerns regarding potential shortages of these essential treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which include medications like Wegovy, Ozempic, Mounjaro, and Zepbound, function by imitating a hormone that controls blood sugar levels and reduces appetite. Initially approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, Wegovy was later sanctioned by the FDA in 2021 for weight loss purposes.
Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, two major pharmaceutical companies producing GLP-1 drugs, are struggling to keep up with the rising demand for these medications.
The researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined medical records of 45 million Americans between 2011 and 2023. Their findings revealed a drop in the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes, which decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. Conversely, the share of new users without type 2 diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that this trend reflects a shift among healthcare providers recognizing the advantages of these drugs for treating obesity. However, she cautioned that it may lead to medication shortages and hinder access for diabetes patients.
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not represent the entire national landscape.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their effectiveness in suppressing appetite, enabling users to lose up to 26% of their body weight. The boom in sales has positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk among the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally, yet the high demand has posed challenges for many patients seeking their prescriptions. In response, both companies have invested heavily to increase production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 medications could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption rate of approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S.—around 9% of the population—by 2035.