A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine indicates a rising trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs to people without diabetes, coinciding with a decline in new prescriptions for those with diabetes. The study’s authors express concern that this shift might lead to shortages of these important treatments.
GLP-1 medications, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and curb appetite, were originally approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, the FDA’s approval of Wegovy for weight loss in 2021 expanded their use. Following this approval, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in keeping up with the growing demand for GLP-1 drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans from 2011 to 2023 and found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from almost 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. Meanwhile, the share of new users without diabetes rose significantly from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are seeing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, which is a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the need to ensure that patients with diabetes still have access to these treatments.”
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not accurately represent national trends. In recent years, the popularity of GLP-1 drugs has surged due to their effectiveness in appetite suppression, leading to significant weight loss for users.
The rapid rise in sales of these medications has turned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk into some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the soaring demand has made it difficult for some patients to get their prescriptions filled. In response, both companies have committed billions to increase their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with expectations that around 31.5 million people in the U.S., or about 9% of the population, will adopt these medications by 2035.