A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the proportion of individuals without diabetes who are being prescribed GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for patients with diabetes are decreasing. The authors of the study caution that this trend could lead to potential shortages of these essential treatments.
GLP-1 drugs function by imitating a hormone that controls blood sugar levels and curbs appetite. Originally approved to treat type 2 diabetes, the FDA also authorized Wegovy for weight loss in 2021. Consequently, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in producing a sufficient supply of GLP-1 medications—including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic—to satisfy the growing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed medical records from 45 million Americans who visited a healthcare provider between 2011 and 2023. They discovered that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023, while the share of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, marking a significant public health shift,” stated Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “However, it also raises concerns about the potential for medication shortages and the necessity to ensure continued access for diabetes patients.”
The study relied on data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not represent the entire national landscape. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects and ability to help users lose up to 26% of their body weight.
Rising sales of these medications have elevated Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become the most valued pharmaceutical companies globally. However, this heightened demand has created difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies have invested billions to enhance the production of these drugs.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 medications will reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million individuals in the U.S. expected to adopt these treatments by 2035, representing approximately 9% of the population.