A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a significant shift in the prescription trends of GLP-1 drugs, which are primarily aimed at treating diabetes. The research indicates a growing number of prescriptions being given to individuals without diabetes, while the new prescriptions for those with diabetes have declined.
The study’s authors express concern over potential shortages of these valuable treatments due to the changing prescription patterns. GLP-1 drugs are designed to mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and appetite. Initially approved for type 2 diabetes management, the FDA’s approval of Wegovy for weight loss in 2021 prompted an increase in interest for these medications.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, key players in the GLP-1 drug market, are currently facing challenges in meeting the burgeoning demand for products like Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited healthcare facilities between 2011 and 2023. They found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the share of new users without diabetes surged from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, the co-first author of the study, noted that this trend reflects a growing recognition among healthcare providers of the benefits of these medications in treating obesity. However, this shift raises concerns regarding the availability of treatment for diabetes patients.
The study utilized data from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent national trends. The popularity of GLP-1 drugs has surged due to their appetite-suppressing effects, leading to user weight losses of up to 26%.
As sales of these medications soar, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have emerged as two of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the increased demand has led to difficulties for some patients in accessing their prescriptions. Both companies have been investing heavily to boost production capacities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, anticipating that their adoption may extend to approximately 31.5 million individuals in the U.S. by 2035, amounting to around 9% of the population.