A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs to individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. The authors of the study express concerns that this shift could lead to shortages of these essential treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, originally approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, function by mimicking a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar levels and suppresses appetite. In 2021, the FDA expanded the approval of Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss purposes. Since then, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in producing sufficient quantities of GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to meet increasing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicate that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023, while the proportion of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Co-first author Yee Hui Yeo stated, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, indicating a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the necessity to ensure that diabetes patients still have access to these treatments.”
The study utilized data from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent national trends. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reported to lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The surge in sales for these medications has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become among the most valuable pharmaceutical firms globally. However, the high demand has caused difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions, prompting both companies to invest significantly in increasing production.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will attain $105 billion by 2030, with an expectation that around 31.5 million people in the U.S.—approximately 9% of the population—will adopt these medications by 2035.