A new study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a rising trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs among individuals without diabetes, while prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. The authors of the study express concern over potential shortages of these popular medications.
GLP-1 drugs function by mimicking a hormone that manages blood sugar levels and curbs appetite. Initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes, the FDA endorsed Wegovy—a GLP-1 treatment—for weight loss in 2021. Following this approval, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in producing an adequate supply of these drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to satisfy rising demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicate that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% by 2023. Conversely, the proportion of new GLP-1 users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25% during the same period.
“This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, indicating a significant public health shift,” stated Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the need to ensure that patients with diabetes still have access to these treatments.”
The study’s data was sourced from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not provide a fully representative sample.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their weight loss capabilities, with users experiencing weight reductions of up to 26%. The soaring sales of these medications have positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk as among the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the surge in demand has made it challenging for some patients to obtain their prescriptions, prompting both companies to invest billions in increasing production.
Morgan Stanley analysts forecast that the global market for these drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected 31.5 million users in the U.S. by 2035, representing about 9% of the population.