A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals an increasing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs among individuals without diabetes, while simultaneously, new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining.
Researchers highlight that this situation could lead to potential shortages of these medications. GLP-1 drugs are designed to mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar levels and suppress appetite. Initially approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, the FDA expanded the use of GLP-1 medication Wegovy to include weight loss in 2021.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in producing an adequate supply of GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, as the demand continues to rise.
The analysis conducted by researchers at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other organizations examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor from 2011 to 2023. The findings indicate a drop in new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes, decreasing from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. Conversely, the proportion of new users without type 2 diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, commented that this shift reflects a growing recognition of the effectiveness of these medications for treating obesity. However, she also noted concerns regarding potential medication shortages and the necessity for continued access for diabetes patients.
The data was derived from healthcare software firm TriNetX, which may not represent the national population accurately. GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects and the ability to help users shed up to 26% of their body weight.
As the demand for these treatments surges, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have become leading pharmaceutical companies globally, but the high demand has complicated the fulfillment of patient prescriptions. Both firms have invested significantly to enhance production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030, with their usage expected to cover around 31.5 million people in the U.S. by 2035, accounting for approximately 9% of the population.