A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine indicates that the prescription rate of GLP-1 drugs for individuals without diabetes is rising, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This trend has raised concerns among researchers about potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 medications are designed to imitate a hormone that manages blood sugar levels and curbs appetite. Initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes, the FDA expanded the approval of Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss in 2021.
As a result, pharmaceutical companies such as Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are struggling to keep pace with the increasing demand for GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed medical records from 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. They found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes declined from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the proportion of new users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, stated that this trend suggests healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of GLP-1 medications for obesity treatment, reflecting a significant public health shift. However, it also raises worries about ensuring that diabetes patients continue to have access to these treatments.
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not represent the national population accurately.
Over the past few years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with studies showing users can lose up to 26% of their body weight. The soaring demand for these medications has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally, but this high demand has also created challenges for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies are investing billions to boost production.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030. They also expect the adoption of these drugs to grow to about 31.5 million people in the U.S., equating to approximately 9% of the population, by 2035.