A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a rising trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs among individuals without diabetes, even as prescriptions for diabetic patients decline. The study highlights potential concerns over future shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs, designed initially to manage type 2 diabetes, have gained additional attention since the FDA approved Wegovy for weight loss in 2021. As a result, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in producing sufficient quantities of these drugs, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to satisfy increasing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed medical records from 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicate that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the proportion of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that more healthcare providers are seeing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, which is a significant public health shift,” said Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the need to ensure that patients with diabetes still have access to these treatments.”
The study relied on data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not fully represent the national landscape.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with some users losing up to 26% of their body weight. The surge in sales has elevated Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to prominently valuable positions within the pharmaceutical industry. However, this high demand has created challenges for patients trying to fill their prescriptions. Both companies have invested billions to enhance their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million people in the U.S., roughly 9% of the population, expected to adopt these medications by 2035.