The number of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications is on the rise, even as new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining, according to a study released on Tuesday in the Annals of Internal Medicine.
Researchers express concern that this trend could lead to potential shortages of these important treatments. GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and reduce appetite, were initially approved to treat type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA approved the use of Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss purposes.
Since that approval, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in producing sufficient quantities of GLP-1 medications, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to meet increasing demand.
A research team from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. Their findings revealed that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. Concurrently, the share of new GLP-1 users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that an increasing number of healthcare providers recognize the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, marking a significant public health shift,” stated Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “However, it raises concerns about the potential for medication shortages and the need to ensure ongoing access for patients with diabetes.”
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not fully represent the national landscape.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have surged in popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with users losing as much as 26% of their body weight. The skyrocketing sales of these drugs have propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become among the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the high demand has made it challenging for some patients to fill their prescriptions, prompting both companies to invest billions in increasing production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for these drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with the adoption of these medications expected to rise to about 31.5 million people in the U.S.—roughly 9% of the population—by 2035.