A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the percentage of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining.
This trend raises alarms over potential shortages of these important treatments. GLP-1 drugs function by imitating a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar levels and decreases appetite. Initially approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, the FDA expanded the indication in 2021 to include weight loss for the GLP-1 medication Wegovy.
Since that approval, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in keeping up with the growing demand for GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined medical records belonging to 45 million Americans who visited healthcare providers between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicated a drop in the share of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023, while the percentage of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, stated, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, indicating a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the necessity of ensuring access for diabetes patients.”
The study’s data was sourced from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, though its findings may not be representative of the entire national population.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their ability to suppress appetite, with some users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight. The surge in sales has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become two of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. Despite high demand, many patients have encountered difficulties in having their prescriptions filled. Both companies have allocated billions to increase production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global GLP-1 market could reach $105 billion by 2030. They also forecast that by 2035, approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S.—about 9% of the population—will be using these drugs.