A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs to individuals without diabetes, while the number of prescriptions for diabetic patients is declining. The authors of the study express concern over potential shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and curbs appetite, were originally approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. However, after the FDA approved Wegovy for weight loss in 2021, there has been a surge in demand. Consequently, companies like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are struggling to keep up with this increasing demand for GLP-1 medications, a class that includes Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center analyzed medical records from 45 million Americans between 2011 and 2023. Results indicate that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the percentage of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%. Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are seeing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, which is a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the need to ensure patients with diabetes still have access to these treatments.”
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, though it may not be fully representative of the national demographic.
GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight. The dramatic increase in sales has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become leading pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the surge in demand has created challenges for patients trying to fill their prescriptions. In response, both companies are investing billions into increasing production capacities.
Morgan Stanley anticipates that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption rate of about 31.5 million individuals in the U.S. by 2035, equivalent to approximately 9% of the population.