A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the prescription of GLP-1 medications to individuals without diabetes is on the rise, while prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This trend raises concerns regarding potential shortages of these crucial treatments.
GLP-1 drugs are designed to imitate a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar levels and suppress appetite. Initially approved for type 2 diabetes management, their use expanded in 2021 when the FDA authorized Wegovy for weight loss.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, leading manufacturers of GLP-1 medications like Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, are currently facing challenges in meeting the surging demand for these drugs.
The research team, comprising experts from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions, examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited healthcare facilities from 2011 to 2023. Their findings indicate a decline in the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. Conversely, the percentage of new GLP-1 users without the condition increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, one of the study’s co-authors, noted that this shift in prescribing trends highlights the growing awareness among healthcare providers about the benefits of GLP-1 medications for obesity treatment. However, he warned of the implications for medication availability for diabetes patients.
The data for the study was sourced from healthcare software company TriNetX, though it may not reflect the national demographics accurately.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their ability to suppress appetite, with users reported to achieve weight losses of up to 26%. This surge in demand has elevated Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the status of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally, although it has also led to difficulties for some patients in obtaining prescriptions. Both companies have invested significantly to increase their production capabilities.
Looking ahead, Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 medications could reach $105 billion by 2030, with approximately 31.5 million individuals in the U.S. expected to use these drugs by 2035, representing around 9% of the total population.