The percentage of individuals without diabetes who are being prescribed GLP-1 medications is increasing, even as new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining, according to a recent study released on Tuesday in the Annals of Internal Medicine.
The study’s authors caution that this emerging trend may lead to potential shortages of these important treatments. GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and suppress appetite, were originally approved for the management of type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA expanded their approval to include weight loss treatments, such as the GLP-1 medication Wegovy.
Since that time, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in producing enough GLP-1 medications— including notable brands like Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic—to satisfy the growing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, along with other institutions, examined medical records from 45 million Americans who had at least one doctor visit between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicated that the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. Conversely, the share of new users without type 2 diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications in treating obesity, marking a significant shift in public health,” stated Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “Nonetheless, it raises concerns about potential medication shortages and emphasizes the importance of maintaining access for diabetes patients.”
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, although it may not fully represent national trends.
In recent years, GLP-1 medications have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with some users reporting up to a 26% weight loss. The soaring sales of these treatments have established Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk as two of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the overwhelming demand has created difficulties for many patients in obtaining their prescriptions. To address this, both companies have invested billions to increase production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 medications could reach $105 billion by 2030, estimating that approximately 31.5 million people in the United States—about 9% of the population—will adopt these drugs by 2035.