A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs to individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This shift raises concerns about potential shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and suppresses appetite, were originally approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. In 2021, the FDA approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss. Since then, manufacturers like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have struggled to meet the increasing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans between 2011 and 2023. They found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023, while the share of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Co-first author Yee Hui Yeo noted, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are seeing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, which indicates a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the need to ensure access for diabetes patients.”
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not fully represent national trends. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects and can help users lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring sales of these medications have positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk as two of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the high demand has complicated prescription fulfillment for some patients. Both companies have invested significantly to increase their production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected 31.5 million U.S. adopters—about 9% of the population—by 2035.