According to a recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine, the proportion of individuals without diabetes prescribed GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for diabetes patients are declining.
Researchers emphasized that the upward trend in prescriptions for non-diabetic patients raises concerns about potential shortages of these vital treatments. GLP-1 drugs, initially developed to treat type 2 diabetes, work by mimicking a hormone that helps manage blood sugar levels and curbs appetite. The FDA expanded their use in 2021 with the approval of Wegovy for weight loss.
Both Novo Nordisk, the manufacturer of Ozempic, and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in meeting the growing demand for GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
The study, conducted by researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions, analyzed medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. They found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% by 2023. Meanwhile, the share of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that more healthcare providers recognize the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, indicating a significant public health shift,” said Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study. “However, this also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and ensuring that diabetes patients still have access to these therapies.”
While the study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, it may not fully represent national trends. Over the past few years, GLP-1 medications have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, enabling users to lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The surge in sales of these drugs has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the top ranks of the world’s pharmaceutical companies. However, the high demand has made it difficult for some patients to fill their prescriptions. Both companies have invested billions to increase production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030 and estimate that their adoption in the U.S. will rise to about 31.5 million people, or approximately 9% of the population, by 2035.