A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs to individuals without diabetes, coinciding with a decline in new prescriptions for those with diabetes. Researchers warn that this shift may lead to potential shortages of these important treatments.
GLP-1 medications, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and decrease appetite, were originally approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA also approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment specifically for weight loss. Since that approval, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in meeting the increasing demand for these medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
The study involved an analysis of medical records from 45 million Americans who visited healthcare providers between 2011 and 2023. Researchers discovered that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes has declined from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. Meanwhile, the share of new users without diabetes has surged from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, one of the study’s co-authors, stated that this trend indicates that more healthcare providers are acknowledging the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, reflecting a significant public health change. However, it raises concerns over ensuring that diabetic patients maintain access to these vital treatments.
The study utilized data from the healthcare software firm TriNetX, which may not accurately represent the entire national population. In recent years, GLP-1 medications have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring demand for these drugs has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the forefront of the pharmaceutical industry, resulting in their status as some of the most valuable companies globally. However, the high demand has made it challenging for many patients to fill their prescriptions. Both companies have committed significant investments to increase their production capabilities.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million people in the U.S. — about 9% of the population — expected to adopt these medications by 2035.