A recent study published on Tuesday in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a notable shift in the prescription patterns of GLP-1 drugs, which are primarily used for managing blood sugar levels in diabetes patients. The research indicates a growing number of prescriptions being issued to individuals without diabetes, alongside a decline in new prescriptions for those with diabetes.
The authors of the study express concern that this trend could lead to potential shortages of these vital medications. GLP-1 drugs function by imitating a hormone that controls blood sugar and curbs appetite. Initially approved for type 2 diabetes treatment, the FDA expanded their use in 2021 to include Wegovy for weight loss.
Both Novo Nordisk and its competitor Eli Lilly are currently struggling to meet the increasing demand for their GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and affiliated organizations examined medical records of 45 million Americans who had at least one medical visit from 2011 to 2023. Their analysis found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. Conversely, the share of new users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, remarked, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the advantages of these medications for obesity treatment, marking a significant public health transition. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the necessity to ensure that diabetes patients continue to access these treatments.”
The study utilized data from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not provide a fully representative national picture. In recent years, GLP-1 medications have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing side effects, facilitating weight loss of up to 26% in users.
The surge in sales of these drugs has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become leading pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the heightened demand has also caused challenges for some patients in getting their prescriptions filled. To address this, both companies have invested billions to enhance their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030 and expect that by 2035, around 31.5 million individuals in the U.S.—approximately 9% of the population—will adopt these treatments.