A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals an increase in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs among individuals without diabetes, while prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This trend raises concerns over potential shortages of these medications, which are essential for diabetes management.
GLP-1 drugs, initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes, function by mimicking a hormone that regulates blood sugar and suppresses appetite. In 2021, the FDA expanded the use of these medications by approving Wegovy for weight loss. As a result, pharmaceutical companies Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in meeting the surging demand for GLP-1 drugs like Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans between 2011 and 2023. They found that the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023, while the share of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%. Co-first author Yee Hui Yeo noted this shift reflects a growing recognition among healthcare providers of the benefits these medications can offer for obesity treatment, though it poses a risk of medication shortages for diabetes patients.
The data for the study was sourced from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, but may not represent the entire national landscape. Over the last few years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, with users experiencing up to 26% weight loss.
The surge in sales of GLP-1 medications has significantly increased the market value of Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, making them top pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the heightened demand has led to difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies have invested heavily to boost production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts forecast that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030, predicting that approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S., or about 9% of the population, will adopt these medications by 2035.