A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs to individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. The authors of the study caution that this shift could lead to shortages of these crucial treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and suppress appetite, were initially approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA expanded the approval to include Wegovy for weight loss.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, leading producers of GLP-1 drugs such as Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, are currently facing challenges in meeting the increasing demand for these medications.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans who had at least one doctor visit between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicate that the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the percentage of new users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, remarked, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are seeing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, which is a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the need to ensure that patients with diabetes still have access to these treatments.”
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent national trends.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, enabling users to lose as much as 26% of their body weight.
The surging demand for these medications has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. Nevertheless, the high demand has complicated the process for certain patients to fill their prescriptions. Both companies are now investing billions to increase production of GLP-1 drugs.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for these medications could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected 31.5 million people in the U.S.—approximately 9% of the population—using them by 2035.