A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a concerning trend regarding GLP-1 drugs, showing an increase in prescriptions for individuals without diabetes while prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. The study highlights the potential for shortages of these critical treatments.
GLP-1 medications, which mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and suppresses appetite, were initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, the FDA approved Wegovy for weight loss in 2021, expanding its usage. As a result, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are struggling to meet the increasing demand for this class of drugs, which includes Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed the health records of 45 million Americans who visited a healthcare provider between 2011 and 2023. They found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes fell from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023, while the proportion of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, indicating a significant public health shift,” stated Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. However, concerns remain about potential shortages and ensuring access for diabetic patients.
The analysis utilized data from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not accurately represent the entire population. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The surge in demand for these medications has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the increased demand has resulted in difficulties for some patients in filling their prescriptions. Both companies have invested billions to enhance production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, anticipating that approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S., or about 9% of the population, will adopt these drugs by 2035.