A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs to individuals without diabetes, while prescriptions for those with diabetes have decreased. This shift raises concerns about potential shortages of these essential medications.
GLP-1 drugs, which imitate a hormone that regulates blood sugar and suppresses appetite, were primarily developed for treating type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss. Since that approval, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have been struggling to produce sufficient supplies of GLP-1 drugs, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to meet escalating demand.
Researchers at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined medical records from 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. Their findings showed that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. Conversely, new GLP-1 users without type 2 diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, commented, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, representing a significant shift in public health. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the necessity to ensure that diabetes patients continue to have access to these treatments.”
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not fully represent national trends. In recent years, the appetite-suppressing effects of GLP-1 drugs have contributed to their popularity, with users reportedly losing as much as 26% of their body weight.
The surge in demand has propelled both Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become among the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally, although high demand has sometimes led to difficulties for patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies are investing substantial resources to increase their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption rate of approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S., representing about 9% of the population, by 2035.