A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 medications to individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are on the decline. Researchers warn that this shift could lead to shortages of these important treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and curbs appetite, were initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes. In 2021, however, the FDA also approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 medication, for weight loss purposes.
Since that approval, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in producing sufficient quantities of GLP-1 drugs—including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic—to meet the soaring demand.
The study, conducted by researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions, examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited healthcare providers between 2011 and 2023. Findings showed that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. In contrast, the share of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
“This data shows that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, indicating a significant public health shift,” noted Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “Conversely, this trend raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the essential need to ensure that diabetes patients have continued access to these drugs.”
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent national trends.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, with users experiencing weight loss of up to 26%. The surge in sales has elevated both Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the ranks of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies worldwide; however, this high demand has complicated prescription fulfillment for some patients. Consequently, both companies are investing billions to increase production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 medications will soar to $105 billion by 2030, with expectations that about 31.5 million Americans—approximately 9% of the population—will adopt these drugs by 2035.