A recent study released in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the number of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 drugs is on the rise, while new prescriptions for diabetic patients are declining. This trend raises concerns about potential shortages of these popular treatments.
GLP-1 medications, which mimic a hormone that controls blood sugar and suppresses appetite, were initially approved for managing type 2 diabetes. However, since the FDA authorized Wegovy for weight loss in 2021, there has been a surge in demand for GLP-1 treatments.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in meeting this increasing demand for their GLP-1 drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and various other institutions analyzed medical records of 45 million Americans from 2011 to 2023. They discovered that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023, while the proportion of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that this trend indicates a significant shift in public health, highlighting the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment. Nevertheless, it raises issues regarding access for diabetes patients who still need these drugs.
The study relied on data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, though it may not be entirely representative on a national scale.
Recently, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their effectiveness in suppressing appetite and can help users lose up to 26% of their body weight. The soaring sales of these medications have established Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk as leading pharmaceutical companies worldwide, but it has also complicated the prescription fulfillment process for some patients. Both firms are heavily investing to boost the production of these drugs.
Analysts from Morgan Stanley predict that the global market for GLP-1 medications will soar to $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption rate of around 31.5 million people, or approximately 9% of the U.S. population, by 2035.