A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine indicates that the percentage of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications is on the rise, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This trend raises concerns about potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone responsible for regulating blood sugar and suppressing appetite, were originally approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, following the FDA’s approval of Wegovy for weight loss in 2021, the demand for these medications has surged. Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are now facing challenges in producing enough GLP-1 drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to meet the increasing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, along with other institutions, examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor from 2011 to 2023. Their findings revealed that the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the share of new GLP-1 users without type 2 diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that this shift suggests more healthcare providers are recognizing the effectiveness of these medications for obesity treatment. However, it also raises alarms about potential medication shortages and emphasizes the need to guarantee continued access for diabetic patients.
The study utilized data from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not reflect the entire population. Over the past few years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their weight-loss effects, enabling users to lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring sales of these drugs have propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become two of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the high demand has also complicated prescription fulfillment for some patients. Both companies are investing heavily to boost production of these medications.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030, predicting that about 31.5 million people in the U.S., or approximately 9% of the population, will be utilizing these treatments by 2035.