A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine indicates that the proportion of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications is increasing, while prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. The authors of the study expressed concern that this shifting trend could lead to potential shortages of these important treatments.
GLP-1 drugs function by imitating a hormone responsible for blood sugar regulation and appetite reduction. Initially authorized for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, the FDA expanded the approval in 2021 for the GLP-1 medication Wegovy to be used for weight loss.
As a result, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in meeting the heightened demand for GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions reviewed medical records of approximately 45 million Americans who visited healthcare providers between 2011 and 2023. They discovered that the percentage of new GLP-1 users diagnosed with type 2 diabetes fell from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the share of new users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, marking a significant public health shift,” stated Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “However, it also highlights concerns regarding potential medication shortages and the necessity to ensure continued access for diabetes patients.”
The study’s data, sourced from the healthcare software company TriNetX, may not reflect the national population fully.
Over recent years, the popularity of GLP-1 drugs has surged due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with users able to lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The impressive sales growth of these medications has positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk as two of the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies. However, the overwhelming demand has made it difficult for some patients to obtain their prescriptions. In response, both companies have invested substantial resources to enhance their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for these drugs could soar to $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption rate reaching approximately 31.5 million individuals in the U.S.—about 9% of the population—by 2035.