A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine highlights a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs to individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for diabetes patients are on the decline. This situation raises concerns about potential shortages of these important medications.
GLP-1 drugs, which function by mimicking a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar levels and suppress appetite, were initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, their scope expanded in 2021 when the FDA authorized Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, major manufacturers of GLP-1 medications such as Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, are currently facing challenges in meeting the increasing demand for these treatments.
Researchers at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, along with other institutions, conducted an analysis of medical records from 45 million Americans who visited healthcare providers between 2011 and 2023. Their findings revealed a drop in the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. Conversely, those without diabetes who were newly prescribed GLP-1 drugs increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, remarked, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are seeing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, which is a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the need to ensure that patients with diabetes still have access to these treatments.”
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, although it may not represent the entire nation.
The increasing popularity of GLP-1 drugs can be attributed to their effectiveness in suppressing appetite, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight. This surge in sales has elevated both Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies worldwide. Nonetheless, the heightened demand has resulted in difficulties for some patients to fill their prescriptions. In response, both companies are investing billions to boost production.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million people, or approximately 9% of the U.S. population, expected to adopt these medications by 2035.