A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs among individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This shift raises concerns over potential shortages of these medications, as highlighted by the study’s authors.
GLP-1 drugs are designed to mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and curb appetite, and they were originally approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, following the FDA’s approval of Wegovy for weight loss in 2021, demand for these medications has surged.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions reviewed the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a healthcare provider between 2011 and 2023. They found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users who had type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% by 2023. Conversely, the proportion of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are seeing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, which is a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the need to ensure that patients with diabetes still have access to these treatments.”
While the study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent the national population, it indicates a growing popularity for GLP-1 drugs due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with users losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring sales of these medications have propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the high demand is affecting patients’ ability to fill prescriptions, prompting both companies to invest billions to increase production.
Analysts from Morgan Stanley predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030. They also expect that by 2035, approximately 31.5 million people, or about 9% of the U.S. population, will adopt these treatments.