A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine indicates a rising trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs among individuals without diabetes, while prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This trend raises concerns about potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and suppress appetite, were originally approved for treating type 2 diabetes. In 2021, however, the FDA expanded the use of GLP-1 treatment to include weight loss, specifically approving Wegovy.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, two major players in this market, are currently facing challenges in meeting the soaring demand for these medications, which comprise Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. Their findings revealed that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes declined from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023, while the proportion of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, commented on the implications of the data, noting a significant shift in how healthcare providers view these medications for obesity treatment. However, this shift also raises apprehensions about ensuring access to these crucial treatments for diabetes patients.
The study relied on data from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent the national landscape.
Over the past few years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The surge in sales of these medications has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become among the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies, but this high demand has made it challenging for some patients to fill their prescriptions. Both companies are investing billions to increase their production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for these drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million adopters in the U.S., which would represent about 9% of the population, by 2035.