A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a concerning trend regarding the prescription of GLP-1 drugs. While prescriptions for individuals diagnosed with diabetes are declining, the number of prescriptions for those without diabetes is on the rise.
GLP-1 medications, initially approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, function by imitating a hormone that helps control blood sugar levels and curb appetite. The FDA extended their use in 2021, allowing Wegovy, a GLP-1 drug, to be prescribed for weight loss purposes.
As demand for these drugs increases, manufacturers Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in production. According to the study conducted by researchers at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions, the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes has plummeted from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. Conversely, the share of new users without diabetes surged from 10% to 25%.
Co-first author Yee Hui Yeo highlighted the implications of these findings, suggesting a shift in healthcare providers’ perceptions of GLP-1 drugs as effective treatments for obesity. However, this shift raises concerns about potential shortages and the need to ensure continued access for diabetic patients.
The study analyzed medical records from approximately 45 million Americans who had at least one doctor visit from 2011 to 2023, utilizing data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent the national landscape.
The rising popularity of GLP-1 drugs is partly attributed to their significant weight loss benefits, with some users reported to lose up to 26% of their body weight. The surge in sales has elevated Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the status of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. Despite investments of billions to increase production, many patients are struggling to fill their prescriptions.
Morgan Stanley forecasts that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption rate of around 31.5 million users in the U.S.—approximately 9% of the population—by 2035.