A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs among individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. The study raises concerns about potential shortages of these crucial medications.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that controls blood sugar and suppresses appetite, were originally approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. However, since the FDA approved Wegovy for weight loss in 2021, demand for these drugs has surged. Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in meeting the increasing demand for their GLP-1 products, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center analyzed medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. They discovered that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. In contrast, the share of new GLP-1 users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are seeing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, which is a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the need to ensure that patients with diabetes still have access to these treatments.”
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent national trends. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, showing potential for users to lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The skyrocketing sales of these medications have elevated Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally, but the overwhelming demand has complicated prescription fulfillment for many patients. Both companies have invested billions to increase production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected 31.5 million users in the U.S., or about 9% of the population, by 2035.