A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs to individuals without diabetes, while prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This shift has raised alarms about potential shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs function by imitating a hormone that controls blood sugar levels and curbs appetite. Initially approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, the FDA expanded the use of GLP-1 medication Wegovy for weight management in 2021. Since then, pharmaceutical companies Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in meeting the escalating demand for these drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans who had at least one doctor visit between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicate that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023, while the proportion of new GLP-1 users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, commented on the implications of the findings, noting the increased recognition among healthcare providers of the benefits of these medications in treating obesity. However, he warned about concerns regarding medication shortages and the necessity for continued access for diabetes patients.
The research utilized data from healthcare software firm TriNetX, which may not provide a comprehensive national representation. Over recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their ability to suppress appetite, aiding users in losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The surge in sales of these medications has propelled both Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become among the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the heightened demand has led to difficulties for some patients in filling their prescriptions. To address this, both companies have invested heavily to increase their production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million U.S. residents—approximately 9% of the population—expected to adopt these medications by 2035.