A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals an alarming trend regarding GLP-1 drugs, indicating that the percentage of individuals without diabetes being prescribed these medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. The researchers raised concerns about potential shortages of these vital treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which imitate a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and curtail appetite, were originally approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA expanded approvals to include Wegovy for weight loss. Since then, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have struggled to keep up with the soaring demand for this class of medication, which includes Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined medical records from 45 million Americans who had visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. They discovered a decrease in the share of new GLP-1 users diagnosed with type 2 diabetes, dropping from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% by 2023. Conversely, the percentage of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the value of these medications for treating obesity, marking a significant public health change,” stated Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the need to guarantee continued access for diabetes patients.”
The study utilized data from the healthcare software firm TriNetX, though it may not fully represent national trends.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their ability to suppress appetite, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight. The surge in sales has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the forefront of the pharmaceutical industry as two of the most valuable companies globally. However, the heightened demand has led to difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies have committed substantial investments to enhance their production capabilities.
According to analysts at Morgan Stanley, the global market for GLP-1 drugs is projected to reach $105 billion by 2030, with estimates suggesting that approximately 31.5 million individuals in the U.S.—about 9% of the population—will adopt these drugs by 2035.