A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine indicates an increasing number of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 drugs, while new prescriptions for diabetic patients are declining. The authors of the study express concerns regarding potential shortages of these treatments as demand rises.
GLP-1 medications, which simulate a hormone that regulates blood sugar and curbs appetite, were originally developed for managing type 2 diabetes. In 2021, the FDA authorized the use of the GLP-1 medication Wegovy for weight loss.
Since that time, pharmaceutical companies such as Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have struggled to produce sufficient quantities of GLP-1 drugs, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to satisfy the growing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions investigated the medical records of 45 million Americans who consulted a physician between 2011 and 2023. They discovered that the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. Concurrently, the percentage of new GLP-1 users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that more healthcare providers recognize the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, indicating a significant public health shift,” said Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “However, it also raises concerns about possible medication shortages and the imperative to ensure access for patients with diabetes.”
The study drew on data from healthcare software company TriNetX, although it may not represent national trends accurately.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have surged in popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, enabling users to lose as much as 26% of their body weight.
The dramatic growth in sales has positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk among the most valuable pharmaceutical firms worldwide. However, high demand has made it challenging for some patients to fill their prescriptions. In response, both companies have invested billions to enhance their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 medications will balloon to $105 billion by 2030, with estimates suggesting that by 2035, around 31.5 million people in the U.S. will adopt these drugs, representing approximately 9% of the population.