A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine indicates a rising trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs to individuals without diabetes, coinciding with a decline in new prescriptions for those who have diabetes. The authors of the study are warning that this shift could lead to potential shortages of these vital treatments.
GLP-1 medications, which mimic a hormone that controls blood sugar levels and curbs appetite, were originally approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, received FDA approval for weight loss purposes.
Currently, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in producing a sufficient quantity of GLP-1 drugs, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to satisfy the growing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. The findings revealed that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023, while the share of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests a significant public health shift, indicating that more healthcare providers recognize the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment,” stated Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “However, this also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the necessity to ensure that diabetes patients continue to have access to these drugs.”
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, though this data may not provide a nationally representative sample.
In recent years, GLP-1 medications have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects and ability to help users lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring sales of these drugs have propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become among the most valuable pharmaceutical companies worldwide. However, high demand has resulted in difficulties for some patients in filling their prescriptions, prompting both companies to invest billions to increase production.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected 31.5 million people in the U.S., or about 9% of the population, likely to adopt these treatments by 2035.