A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the proportion of individuals without diabetes receiving prescriptions for GLP-1 medications is rising, while prescriptions for diabetic patients are declining. Researchers warn that this shift could lead to potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 medications, which mimic a hormone that controls blood sugar and suppresses appetite, were initially approved for type 2 diabetes. In 2021, the FDA expanded their use, approving Wegovy for weight loss.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in producing sufficient quantities of GLP-1 drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to meet increasing demand.
The study, conducted by researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and others, analyzed medical records of 45 million Americans who visited healthcare providers from 2011 to 2023. They found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023, while the percentage of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Co-first author Yee Hui Yeo noted that these findings indicate a growing recognition among healthcare providers of the benefits of these drugs in treating obesity, marking a significant public health trend. However, it raises concerns about ensuring access to these medications for diabetes patients.
The data analyzed came from the healthcare software firm TriNetX, though it may not fully represent national trends.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight. This surge in sales has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become two of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally, creating challenges for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies are investing heavily to increase production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley forecasts that the global market for these drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with around 31.5 million people in the U.S. expected to adopt these medications by 2035, representing approximately 9% of the population.