A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the number of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This trend has raised concerns about potential shortages of these important treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and suppress appetite, were primarily approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA expanded their use with the approval of Wegovy for weight loss purposes. Since then, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in meeting the growing demand for GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans with at least one doctor visit from 2011 to 2023. They found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. Conversely, the share of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Co-first author of the study, Yee Hui Yeo, noted that the data indicates a growing recognition among healthcare providers of the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, marking a significant public health shift. However, this trend also raises concerns about ensuring continued access to these treatments for diabetes patients.
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, although it may not fully represent national trends. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, aiding users in losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring sales of GLP-1 medications have turned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk into some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the high demand has created difficulties for patients looking to have their prescriptions filled, prompting both companies to invest significantly in increasing their production capabilities.
Analysts from Morgan Stanley predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption rate of approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S.—about 9% of the population—by 2035.