A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs among individuals without diabetes, coinciding with a decline in new prescriptions for those diagnosed with diabetes. Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, along with other institutions, analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans who had at least one doctor visit between 2011 and 2023.
The findings show that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. In contrast, the share of new users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%. The study authors express concerns that this shift could lead to medication shortages, emphasizing the need to ensure ongoing access to these treatments for diabetes patients.
Originally approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, GLP-1 drugs, which include Wegovy, Zepbound, Mounjaro, and Ozempic, mimic a hormone that manages blood sugar and suppresses appetite. The FDA approved Wegovy for weight loss in 2021, which has significantly contributed to the rising popularity of these medications for obesity treatment.
Both Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, key producers of GLP-1 drugs, are facing challenges in meeting the high demand despite investing billions to enhance production capabilities. The surge in sales has elevated these companies to be among the most valuable in the pharmaceutical sector. Projections from Morgan Stanley suggest that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million users in the U.S. by 2035, accounting for approximately 9% of the population.