A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a notable shift in the prescription patterns for GLP-1 drugs. While fewer prescriptions are being given to individuals with diabetes, the proportion of prescriptions for those without the condition is increasing. This trend raises concerns about potential shortages of these crucial treatments.
GLP-1 medications, initially approved for type 2 diabetes management, work by mimicking hormones that regulate blood sugar and appetite. In 2021, the FDA expanded usage to include weight loss treatments, notably the GLP-1 drug Wegovy.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are currently facing challenges in meeting the soaring demand for these medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
An analysis by researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined medical records of 45 million Americans from 2011 to 2023. It found that the rate of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023, while the percentage of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that the data reflects an increasing recognition among healthcare providers of the benefits of GLP-1 medications for obesity, marking a significant public health shift. However, this trend also raises worries about medication availability for diabetes patients who still need these treatments.
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent national trends. Recently, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with users experiencing weight loss of up to 26%.
The surge in sales for these medications has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to top positions among the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies. Nevertheless, high demand has created difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. In response, both companies have invested heavily to enhance their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030. They also expect the usage of these medications to grow to approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S., about 9% of the population, by 2035.