A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals an intriguing shift in the prescription patterns of GLP-1 drugs, which are primarily used to manage type 2 diabetes. The study shows a growing number of prescriptions being issued to individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for diabetic patients are declining.
This trend raises important concerns over potential shortages of these medications, which include popular treatments such as Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic. The study analyzed medical records of approximately 45 million Americans who visited doctors between 2011 and 2023, uncovering a notable decrease in the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes—from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the share of new users without diabetes surged from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, emphasized the implications of this trend, indicating that healthcare providers are increasingly recognizing the benefits of GLP-1 medications for obesity treatment. While this shift signifies a positive movement in addressing obesity—a significant public health issue—it simultaneously raises concerns about ensuring that diabetic patients maintain access to essential treatments.
Initially approved for type 2 diabetes, GLP-1 drugs gained FDA approval for weight loss in 2021, leading to heightened interest in their appetite-suppressing effects. The success of these medications has driven sales for pharmaceutical giants Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, propelling both companies to unprecedented valuations. Unfortunately, the increased demand has led to medication shortages, making it challenging for some patients to obtain their prescriptions.
Investment bank Morgan Stanley anticipates that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach an astounding $105 billion by 2030, with a projected adoption of about 31.5 million people in the U.S.—approximately 9% of the population—using these medications by 2035.
While the growing recognition of GLP-1 drugs for obesity treatment is a promising development, it is crucial for healthcare systems to ensure that supplies are sufficient to meet the needs of all patients, particularly those with diabetes. The evolution of these medications underscores the ongoing battle against obesity and diabetes, holding the potential for significant public health advancements.
In essence, the data bring hopeful prospects for tackling obesity while simultaneously challenging medical practitioners to balance resources effectively.